A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
